1. Cross-sector fraud journeys stretch further than expected
22% of fraud encountered has appeared elsewhere — the figure rises significantly when synthetic IDs are involved.
More fraud journeys now run in parallel across sectors, organisations and products. Understanding where you sit within a wider journey matters more than any single event.
2. A major share of serious fraud shows early signals
Up to 44% of organised and regulatory-exposed fraud is preceded by identifiable suspicious behaviour.
This unfolds at a time when more fraud is developing on the customer book, and demographics we once trusted become higher risk.
3. Synthetic IDs shift repeat offending into a new gear
Synthetic IDs used for repeat offending has surged by 40%. One in three synthetics are now linked to repeat fraud.
AI, public data theft and siloed checks lower the barriers to creating and reusing synthetics. More risk compounds after onboarding and the speed of synthetic growth mark a major escalation.
4. Fake documents play a new role in fraud pathways
Document fraud has risen by 26% in high-risk products. Yet AI is yet to replace lower-level manipulation tactics.
Fake documents are enabling layers across fraud journeys, while lower friction manipulation continues where effective. The challenge is not forgery, but knowing where and why a document appears.
5. Stolen IDs persist longer than expected after the first fraud
As many as 66% of compromised identities are reused, and 19% are linked to synthetic identity construction.
Harm builds when responsibility is assessed in isolation rather than across the lifecycle. The “identity afterlife” shows the extent to which risk persists and jeopardises customer, business and regulatory duty.
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